Global Burden Modeling [Neurosurgery Wiki]

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===== Global Burden Modeling =====

**Global burden modeling** refers to a set of **statistical and computational methods** used to estimate the **burden of disease** across populations, time periods, and geographic regions, particularly where data may be sparse, incomplete, or inconsistent.

==== Purpose ====
To quantify and compare the **health impact** of diseases, injuries, and risk factors globally, enabling informed **public health decision-making** and **resource allocation**.

==== Core Outputs ====
  * **Incidence** and **prevalence**
  * **Mortality** and **cause-specific death rates**
  * **Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs)**
  * **Years of Life Lost (YLLs)**
  * **Years Lived with Disability (YLDs)**
  * **Attributable burden by risk factor** (e.g., PM2.5, hypertension)

==== Methodological Features ====
  * Combines data from:
    * Vital registration systems
    * Epidemiological studies
    * Health surveys
    * Hospital records
  * Uses statistical modeling to:
    * Fill data gaps in countries or years lacking direct data
    * Standardize across sources
    * Produce **age-, sex-, and region-specific** estimates
  * Common modeling techniques:
    * **Bayesian meta-regression** (e.g., DisMod-MR)
    * **Ensemble modeling** (e.g., CODEm for cause of death)
    * **Covariate-driven regression** (for risk factor attribution)

==== Key Projects ====
  * [[https://www.healthdata.org/gbd|Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD)]] by the **Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)**
  * WHO Global Health Estimates

==== Strengths ====
  * Provides **comparable, comprehensive** estimates across countries and time
  * Guides **policy, funding**, and **priority-setting** globally

==== Limitations ====
  * Dependent on model assumptions and data quality
  * May obscure local variability or context-specific patterns

==== Related Terms ====
  * [[Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY)]]
  * [[Epidemiological modeling]]
  * [[Ecological trend analysis]]